Three cups of tea. And a lot of bullshit?

Often I can't explain why I feel something about certain things. But there is not doubt I felt something strongly about "Three cups of tea". Now I might know why:

Greg Mortenson, the high-profile advocate of girls' education in Afghanistan and Pakistan, has been forced to defend his best-selling book "Three Cups of Tea: One Man's Mission to Fight Terrorism and Build Nations ... One School at a Time," against charges that key stories in it are false.

Mortenson shot to international fame with the book, which describes his getting lost in an effort to climb K2, the world's second-highest peak, being rescued by Pakistani villagers in the village of Korphe and vowing to return there to build a school for local girls.

He also claims to have been captured by the Taliban and held for several days before being released. (...) however -- Jon Krakauer of "Into Thin Air" fame -- told a CBS "60 Minutes" investigation that aired Sunday that the story is not true.(..)

Mortenson's record of charity and his tales of derring-do have helped fuel the Central Asia Institute. The organization recorded income of $14 million in 2009 (...) However, in 2009, less than half of that money -- 41 percent -- actually went to building schools in Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to the institute's board of directors.(...)

The institute also says $1.7 million went to promote Mortenson's books in the form of advertising, events, film and professional fees, and some travel. It said the contributions generated by Mortenson's promotional events "far exceed the travel expenses." (Source)

Over the past years, several people recommended I should read Mortenson's book, "Three cups of tea". A Friend lent me the book, saying "You might not like it". And I didn't.

I read the first twenty pages and had to put it aside. I tried to continue reading it several times, but I could not. I can't say why exactly. There was a fake ring to the whole story. There was a fake smile on the guy's face. And I surely have an issue if anyone promoting girls' education, likes to pose with his wife and kid, and a couple of AK47's... And proudly publishes the picture in one of his books.

Above all, I smelled "CIA" all over. Winning the hearts and minds of people. With loads of American dollars.

Next!

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Pakistan: I wished I was wrong - Part I

Remember, I predicted that despite all the humanitarian trumpet-ing that "Pakistan was the biggest humanitarian emergency ever seen", funding would not be forthcoming? Simply because the main donor countries would not step forward, and the world sentiment is not particularly filled with loved for anything happening in countries filled with mosques?

Guess what.

Of the 460 million USD humanitarian appeal, only 307 million is funded to date.

Oxfam cries foul. And so does the latest hired humanitarian employee, Ms Amos. Who also happens to be the new UN Emergency Relief Coordinator. According to her, in the past two weeks, only $20 million USD was received on the half a billion appeal. Twenty-million in two weeks. For a natural disaster? If that does not prove a point, nothing will.

As goes with natural disasters: if the money does not arrive one month after, forget about it. It is out of the news. Press, people, and donors have moved on.

The next time I will write about Pakistan, the post title will be "Pakistan: I wished I was wrong - Part II". It will to about my second prediction on Pakistan. The first killing of an aidworker since the crisis.

I wish I am proven wrong on this one.

I am telling you, to survive in the aid world, you really need a harness of cynism.


Picture courtesy REUTERS/Athar Hussain

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Floods in Pakistan? Google's advice...

When searching for "Pakistan Floods" on Humanitarian News, the Google ad at the bottom of the page displayed the appropriate advice. Kind of.

Google could also have displayed an ad for one of the aid agencies or something, but maybe they were thinking of more longer term solutions....

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Pakistan floods: Wishing I was wrong

A few days ago, I -once more- climbed onto my soapbox and proclaimed my eternal wisdom on the Pakistan flood emergency as if the Holy Truth Was Installed Upon Me by The Powers Above. Hallelujah..!

For all those involved in the emergency, I honestly wished I was wrong. But unfortunately, I am watching it all unroll as I predicted.

I claimed funding for the Pakistan emergency would probably not be forthcoming due to a lack of interest from the West... and here is a clip from yesterday's papers:

The global aid response to the Pakistan floods has so far been much less generous than to other recent natural disasters — despite the soaring numbers of people affected (...)

Reasons include the relatively low death toll of 1,500, the slow onset of the flooding compared with more immediate and dramatic earthquakes or tsunamis, and a global "donor fatigue" — or at least a Pakistan fatigue. (Ed: I would only accept the last explanation)

Ten days after the Kashmir quake, donors gave or pledged $292 million, according to the aid group Oxfam. The Jan. 12 disaster in Haiti led to pledges nearing $1 billion within the first 10 days.
For Pakistan, the international community gave or pledged $150 million after the flooding began in earnest in late July (...) (Full)

A detailed updated status of the consolidated pledges to the Pakistan humanitarian appeal, you find here.


And on staff security, all warning lights are on:

The Pakistani Taliban has urged the government not to accept any foreign aid for victims of the worst flooding in the country's history.

Spokesman Azam Tariq told an Associated Press reporter Tuesday that the Taliban would themselves provide money if the government stopped accepting international help.

"Pakistan should reject this aid to maintain sovereignty and independence," Tariq said. (Full)

Last year, the Taliban issued a similar statement one week before aidworkers were bombed in their Peshawar hotel.


Edited picture based on original by Paula Bronstein/Getty Images, discovered via The Boston Globe's second "The Big Picture" series on the floods and The Horizon

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You've been an aidworker for too long (Part 12)

...if you are convinced "KFC" stands for Karachi Fried Chicken and that "Parasonic" or "Somy" are the real thing.

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Pakistan floods - Unpopular thoughts by an aidworker on the sideline

Watching the images on TV, and reading the reports, it is impossible to stay untouched by the misery caused by the massive Pakistani monsoon floods.

As an aidworker watching (for the moment), from the sideline, I have three thoughts that might make me unpopular in the aid community:

1. Last year's Pakistani Swat emergency was hugely underfunded, which, according to me, showed a donor fatigue towards South-Central Asia and Pakistan in particular. It also showed a political unwillingness from "the West" to assist Pakistan, other than the "minimum needed".
   Unless some of the main donors take the lead and come up with big bucks now, the 2010 flooding will go into history as the worst international humanitarian response failure ever. Caused by lack of funding.
   And time is of crucial importance, as it always is for natural disasters: the response needs to be massive and immediate, as three months down the line, the accute need (and the majority of life saving actions) is no longer there.
   ...Leaving alone that anyone would still hick up money for a natural disaster three months after the facts.
   
   
2. As of yesterday, I see press reports popping up with cries like affected people may outnumber the tsunami, 2005 Pakistan and 2010 Haiti earthquake combined. And the worst disaster in the UN's history. Both phrases were uttered by aid agencies, and not invented but eagerly picked up by the paparazzi... Reporters have been waiting for some exciting news stories in these slow summer months now that the Gulf oil spill is over.
   I would urge caution in using tabloid catch phrases like "the biggest ever"... Love is a drug. So are disaster figures, and crying foul. Like a drug, it is addictive, and numbs your senses on the longer term.
   Soon we won't raise a penny's donation anymore unless if the affected population is over the 20 million, and unless we make appeals over 1 billion (to get 100 million)...
   There has been a clear tendency to exaggerate figures in the past years. And the donors have happily played the PR game: Just as the aid community, donors have come out with billions and billions worth of pledges. Remember the billions promised for the Afghanistan rebuild? And the multi billions pledged as a response to the global food crisis. All pledges which never materialized, but were pitched at the press at the time. A press which eagerly took it over as "shock and awe"-reporting. A PR win-win for all those involved, but unfortunately as they sing in Italian: "Parole, parole!"
   This is what happens when aidwork reporting is taken over by tabloids.
   
   
3. And most importantly. A subject very close to my heart. Staff security...
   A wise man once told me: "You can no longer reduce the threat, so reduce the risk": we have gone beyond the point where we can reduce the external threat of terrorist attacks on aidworkers, so we should confine to reducing the risk. And the more aidworkers sent into a high risk environment, the higher the risk. Simple as that.
   Now that every single self respecting NGO, UN agency, nonprofit organisation will be scrambling to show its face and "plant the flag" in Pakistan, we should not forget: In the past year, the aid community has been directly targeted by bold terrorist acts several times: In March 2009, seven WorldVision staff died in an attack on their office. Mercy Corps had their staff abducted and in June 9 2009, the bombing of the Pearl Continental in Peshawar, destroyed the hotel where most aidworkers stayed. The bombing of WFP's office in Islamabad, on October 5 2009, left five dead and several wounded.
   The Taliban has made no secret in targeting aidworkers in the whole region. A point made clear in this weekend's killing of 10 aidworkers in Afghanistan.
   Every single relief agency should hold back on the impulse to "pump in as many people as they can" to respond to the emergency.
   As a matter of fact, many support functions (finance, administration, procurement, reporting, mapping, etc etc) can be done in a remote support base, keeping the strict minimum of people in harm's way. In an emergency, more than half of the people needed on the ground can work remotely. And probably they would work more effectively too!
   I suggest for every single person any organisation sends in, the question is asked: "Do we really need this person to be there, on the ground?".

I think it is appropriate at this point to repeat the disclaimer at the bottom of this blog: "This blog expresses my personal opinions, and not those of my current or past employers."


Picture courtesy Behrouz Mehri/AFP/Getty Images, discovered via The Boston Globe's "The Big Picture" series on the floods

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The Wild West of Pakistan

There are plenty of things I have seen in my travels around the world, I can unfortunately not write about. However, when I come across a video or an article that reminds me of some experiences, I surely can post them.

Here is an intriguing video from the tribal areas in Pakistan, bordering Afghanistan.

Video courtesy VBS TV

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Picture of the day: Suicide bomb in Peshawar

A huge and lethal blast rocked a crowded market in the northwestern city of Peshawar on Friday, in what appeared to be a warning about the government’s plans to launch a military offensive against militants in the frontier region of South Waziristan.

The blast, which police and security officials suspected was caused by a suicide car bomb containing more than 100 pounds of explosives, was the biggest in Pakistan in months, killing at least 48 people, including seven children and one woman, and wounding 148 others. (Full)

A car bomb, in a public market place, on a Friday... Clearly aimed to kill as many innocent people as possible. Civilians. People like you and me, who have nothing to do with the so-called war.
Killing children has nothing to do with religion anymore. This has nothing to do with faith anymore. Not even with politics. This is about power, and money, and control. At any cost, in any way possible.

I can not imagine how vicious a mind can be to plan and execute something like this. It is a spiral that seems to be impossible control, leave alone to be stopped. Anyone can strap explosives around his waste or stuff it in the trunk of his car and blow himself up in the most crowded places, trying to kill as many innocent people as possible.

More Pictures of the Day on The Road.

Picture courtesy European Pressphoto Agency

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A deadly bomb blast in my office

It is difficult to imagine what people go through when a suicide bomb determines who is to live and who is not. Here is the story from Rehmat Yazdani, one of our colleagues, who survived yesterday's bombing of the UN WFP office in Islamabad, Pakistan.

I am shaken and traumatized after the yesterday’s blast which took place inside my office building only a few paces away from my glass-cabin. The blast was so sudden and strong that it took me some time to register what actually had happened there with all of us. It was so strong that I was thrown from my chair to a few feet away on the floor.


Everything was shattered into pieces only in a matter of seconds. When I tried getting up from the floor, I had broken wooden pieces in my hair, my head and body were aching badly as something had hit me severely. I was not in my senses and my whole body was shaking badly, the sound of the deadly blast was resonating in my ears and I was so shocked that I could not move a step. There were injured colleagues lying on the floor. My room was on fire and pieces of paper, broken pieces of doors, broken pieces of my glass cabin, windows and tables were lying here and there. I was looking at my injured colleagues in a state of shock and horror. “Vacate the building immediately”, I heard one of my colleagues saying. But I could not move till the time one of my colleague dragged me outside the building. But that was not the end of it.


The real horror started when my colleagues started taking the dead and injured bodies outside the building. Yes, bodies drenched in blood of people I worked and used to spent a major part of my day on regular basis… It was such a heartbreaking scene……We had tears in ours eyes. We were horrified and traumatized…


None of us in the office had ever imagined that this Bloody Monday will change our lives for ever and we will be left with haunted memories of the incident. I have not recovered from the shock yet, the whole scene is playing back again and again in my brain, even the sedative pills failed to calm down my nerves. None of my other colleagues are out of trauma yet. Those innocent souls who died in the blast would never be there in our office again and our office would never be the same place again….. I pray for all the departed souls (Gul, Farzana, Wahab, Abid Rehman and Udan) and I am going to miss them forever …


My mother says that it is a miracle that I have only minor injuries and I survived despite the fact that the bomb blasted only a few paces away from where I sit But I am thinking why this miracle did not happen in case of Gul, Farzana, Wahab, Abid Rehman and Udan. Why these innocent people lost their lives?? What will become of their families now?? What was their fault or What was our fault that all of us became victims of a bomb blast and are left with haunted memories ??

Read also this story by one of our colleagues, Dima, who remembers her friend, Farzana, she will not meet again.

Story republished courtesy MetBlogs. Picture courtesy Dawn

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We lost five colleagues in Islamabad today

Today, it is my birthday. But not much reason to celebrate. This morning, someone got into our office in Islamabad, Pakistan, and blew himself up.

He took the lives away from Botan, Farzana, Abid, GulRukh and Mohammad. Our colleagues and friends.

Botan Al-Hayawi (41) was Iraqi. He leaves behind a wife, two sons and a daughter. Botan was on mission in Peshawar when suicide bombers blew up the Pearl Continental Hotel in June. I met Botan several times back in 2002 and 2003 when I worked in Iraq.

Yesterday, Botan posted something on the Interagency ICT discussion forum:

I arrived to Islamabad last Monday morning with a busy day planned. I had just returned to Islamabad after recovering from the Peshawar blast on June 9th, 2009, which left me with some minor injuries but did not break my spirit.

He wrote this less than 24 hours before someone took his life away.

Farzana Barkat (22) was an office assistant. She worked in our logistics office, right next to where the suicide bomber blew himself up. A young woman at the start of her life.

Abid Rehman (41) was our senior finance assistant. He leaves a wife, two daughters and two sons. I worked with Abid when I was based in Islamabad from 2000 to 2002. We always exchanged friendly and teasing jokes as I stretched the finance unit with my urgent requests.

GulRukh Tahir (40) was our receptionist. She leaves behind a husband.

Mohammad Wahab (44) was our finance assistant. He leaves a wife, two daughters and two sons.

I am a bit numb at this moment. I think back of all the people I have known, and who lost their lives in the line of duty. Abby, Saskia, Pero, M.....

I think how it is possible to be close to those we want to serve, without having to isolate ourselves with barbed wire and sand bags. I think how we can still work in places we are still needed, but know we are at risk. Algeria, where our offices were bombed in 2007. Somalia, where we lost two colleagues earlier this year. Sudan, where we lost several drivers over the past years... Only to name a few.

It is strange.. It is only after the hours go by that the cruelty and the reality of the act today really seeps through... And the consciousness that if we are to work in a higher risk environment, there actually is not one place, where one is totally safe. Where would that be? In the office? They drive a truck through the gates and blow it up. In the guesthouse or the hotel? Same thing...
You can restrict the movements of staff and reduce field visits to minimize the risk, you can drive armoured cars - as we do in some operations - but then again, what holds them from blowing up an anti-tank mine underneath your vehicle as you stop in front of the traffic lights? What holds anyone from gunning you down when you get out of the car. Even when you think you are safe in the office compound.

Security for humanitarian workers has been more and more restrictive on what and how we can do our work. "Protecting ourselves" is a must. But how far does that conflict with being able to do our work, which entails having direct contact with those we serve? Should we all pack and go home?

I do not know the answers. I know one thing. This is not a happy birthday for me...

This song keeps on playing in my mind...

Picture courtesy The Nation

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Peshawar bombing hits the aid community

Last night, a suicide bomb attack on a luxury hotel in the north-west Pakistani city of Peshawar, has killed 15 people and injured at least 60.

Gunmen stormed the outer security barrier at the Pearl Continental Hotel before blowing up a vehicle containing 500kg of explosives.

Two aidworkers, a Serbian UNHCR staff and a UNICEF employee from the Philippines were killed and several others were injured. (Full)

This was the last in a long series of bombings in Pakistan, the second targeting a prominent hotel. Nine months ago, the Marriott hotel in Islamabad was virtually destroyed in a similar attack.
The Pearl Continental was obviously chosen as a target for maximum impact: due to the obvious security constraints in Peshawar, it was the only hotel approved for UN aid workers, by UN Department for Safety and Security (UNDSS).

Picture courtesy Mohammad Sajjad/Associated Press

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Humanitarian aid and the power of the media

During major humanitarian crises, 13 British charities often raise money jointly under an umbrella organisation called the Disasters Emergencies Committee (DEC), with appeals shown on all the major television networks.

But the DEC had its fingers burned when the BBC and Sky decline to cooperate on its last appeal for the Gaza conflict, fearing the media's involvement would compromise their political neutrality as news organisations, a story we reported previously on The Road.

The consequence of the BBC's Gaza decision seems to have a deeper impact then we anticipated: it was a precedent of how the media could "make or break" a humanitarian appeal effort. The Gaza media incident spilled over into the current humanitarian catastrophes in Sri Lanka and Pakistan as now DEC is still contemplating whether or not to launch appeals for Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

"The issue is whether the broadcasters will support an appeal and my impression is that they won't, for perceived reasons of (aid) access in either case, and for perceived reasons of political complexity in either case." (Full)

So, let me get this straight: because the media decide not to provide coverage for an appeal, a humanitarian organisation decides NOT to launch an appeal? Eh? Would that make DEC's decision not to appeal for Sri Lanka and Pakistan as revolting as the BBC's decision not to provide media coverage for the appeal? Are soon humanitarian organisations 'picking and choosing' which operations to support, based on 'the possible support by the media'?

Current balance: Humanitarian organisations' resources already stretched because of the current economic crisis, are left close to depleted. Not because the need was not there - Pakistan's war in Swat Valley uprooted close to 3 million people - but because of lack of support and attention from the media.

The phenomenon is known amongst aidworkers as "The CNN Effect": If an emergency gets the spotlight on CNN, humanitarian wheels start rolling. If it is not featured on CNN, the emergency is forgotten and hushed in a corner. You might just as well not start an emergency operation if you feel you won't be able to fundraise for it, right?

Which turns the Rupert Murdochs and Ted Turners of this world the Gods deciding between life and death for thousands.

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Worrying events...

There is always something going on, somewhere in the world, that keeps us, aidworkers, busy. Here is what is on our mind these days:

• 8,000 Somalis are displaced in one day of fighting around Mogadishu (Full)
• A rebellion seems to be on the raise in Nigeria (Full) and Niger (Full)
• Relief agencies still don't have full access to the displaced civilians after the Tamil was defeated in Sri Lanka. (Full)
• Southern Sudan seems to fall back into violence (Full)
• ...while in Darfur, the war is flaring up again (Full)
• Pakistan's offensive in the Swat valley displaced 2.3 million people, with aid agencies scrambling to cope. (Full)
  

Items discovered via International Aid Workers Today and AidNews.

Picture courtesy Reuters

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Our Kiva project 13: Bliquis Aziz

Here is a summary of The Road's 13th social project:

A micro-financing loan to the Bliquis Aziz's Women's Group in Pakistan.

Bilquis baji lives in Pakpattan, Pakistan. The city is famous for its shrine of great Punjabi Sufi poet, Babar Fareed Ganj Shakkar.

Bliquis baji is the mother of two sons, both of whom are auto-rickshaw drivers (the local three-wheeled motor vehicle). She is a housewife but applies for a loan to buy another rickshaw for her eldest son, so that he able to increase his profits as a transit driver.

This is a group loan, and she is joined in her request by four other members. The loan funds will be distributed among the group members, each of whom will invest in their own business:
- Kaneez baji wants a loan to buy a mirror and chair for her beauty salon.
- Zafran baji also wants a loan to buy a rickshaw.
- Mukhtayar baji wants a loan to buy tools for her vehicle repair workshop.
- Saima baji wants a loan to buy cigarettes for her cigarette selling business.

The members mutually guarantee one another's loans. If one member does not repay, the other members are responsible. (See also the group's full profile on Kiva)

This loan goes through "Asasah", the local micro financing partner of Kiva.

Loan Request: $900
Repayment terms: 11 months (Deadline Dec 15 2009)
We gave them a loan of US$100

This is The Road's 13th social project. The funds for this loan were donated by the VK0IR Heard Island expedition team.


More on The Road's social project "Change Starts Here".
You can keep track of our project via our score card.

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MSF's Top Ten Humanitarian Crisis

At the end of the year, MSF (Doctors Without Borders) used to publish their "top 10 under-reported crisis". Now, their hit list is called plainly "Top 10 Humanitarian Crisis".

No "under-reporting" this year. Guess there were sufficient press spotlights turned to the humanitarian aspect of any crisis:

Myanmar's cyclone emergency was an excellent opportunity for the West to wedge some cracks in the Generals' totalitarian regime and the press was present.

Zimbabwe got its fair share due to the West's tendency to collectively sideline 'no-longer-wanted' leaders from African countries. And the press was present.

Somalia got floodlights due to the piracy plague. Sexy subject, and the press was present.

I still think a full blown crisis was avoided in DRC when the media jumped onto the plane direction Goma real fast. Fast enough for the different warring parties to sit around the table and go chest-thumping. A million people affected by the crisis.

So no "under-reporting" this year. MSF still wanted their top 10. And no surprises as to who got listed. Some of them have been in there for years: Somalia, Ethiopia, DRC, Pakistan, Zimbabwe, Sudan and Iraq. With a special emphasis for TBC/HIV co-infection and malnutrition. (Full)

Picture courtesy Sven Torfinn (MSF)

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Rumble: The Road's Kiva project 8: Khursheed Anwar

Here is a summary of The Road's 8th social project:

A micro-financing loan to the Khursheed Anwar Women's Group in Pakistan.

Khursheed baji is the wife of Anwar and has been living in Riwind, Pakistan for the past 6 years.

She completed her education only until the 5th grade because her family was poor and could not afford her education expenses.

Khursheed baji is the mother of five children: two sons and three daughters. Her elder son runs a small hotel in his community. The remaining children are enrolled in a neighborhood school. Khursheed baji’s husband has been selling wood for the past 10 years, and she sells clothes. She buys second hand sweaters at cheap prices and resells them in her community.

Khursheed baji has successfully repaid her first loan, and is now applying for a loan to buy more warm clothes and sweaters to increase her profit. She is joined in her loan group by a few more women:
- Rahmat baji is requesting a loan to buy more shoes for resale.
- Sakina baji is requesting a loan to buy tools used to fix electronic items (air conditioners, tube lights).
- Parveen baji is requesting a loan to buy oil and gas for resale.
- Safia baji and Naseem baji are requesting a loan to buy more wood for resale.

This is a group loan. The loan funds will be distributed among the group members, each of whom will invest in their own business. The members mutually guarantee one another's loans. If one member does not repay, the other members are responsible for repayment. (Khursheed's full profile on Kiva)

This loan goes through "Asasah", the local micro financing partner of Kiva.

Loan Request: $1,550
Repayment terms: spread over 11 months (Deadline Dec 15 2009)
We gave her a loan of US$75

This is The Road's 8th social project. The funds for this loan were donated by the VK0IR Heard Island expedition team.


More on The Road's social project "Change Starts Here".
You can keep track of our project via our score card.

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Picture of the day: Pakistan earthquake

An earthquake survivor sits on the rubble of his collapsed house near Ziarat, Pakistan. (Full)

More Pictures of the Day on The Road

Picture courtesay REUTERS/Athar Hussain

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News: Bombing of the Islamabad Marriott hotel

A massive bomb blast has hit the Marriott Hotel in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, killing at least 40 people. The explosion occurred when a lorry, which was being checked by security staff and sniffer dogs blew up at the hotel's entrance.
The explosion - a suspected suicide bombing - is thought to have been caused by more than a tonne of explosives.
Pakistan authorities say 53 people died and 266 were wounded. (Full)

The attack sends a chill down my spine. When I lived in Islamabad, we used to go to the Marriott at least once per month. The hotel is featured in this shortstory.

The attack also comes just a few weeks after I wrote a post to watch the developments in Pakistan at at a time where the government is trying to find the right balance between its alliance to the US, and the grip the Taliban has in the Northern Territories...

More posts on the Road about Pakistan

Picture courtesy AFP.

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News: Watch Pakistan

Warning. This piece is opinionated and reflects my personal views.

Pakistan has kept up a fragile balancing act between democracy and despotism, between the US and its Muslim roots, between being the Taliban's friend or foe. I lived in Pakistan for a number of years before and during the 9/11 crisis and always found it quite an inflammable country, which could ignite with the slightest spark.

The country's leader after the 1999 coup d'etat, Pervez Musharraf, who resigned as the Commander in Chief of the armed forces a few months ago, just stepped down as the country's president amidst an increased campaign of terrorist attacks and worsening civil unrest.
Musharraf might not have been the school example for democracy but it seems that he was able to keep the fragile balance the country needed in a turbulent region, and neighbouring its arch-rival India.

With the Taliban's power yet again on the raise in Afghanistan and in Pakistan's -almost self ruling- tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, one should worry if this country, a nuclear power, can continue to please the West, its population, and the extremists.

The more a worry because while Pakistan was -officially- an US ally in the war against terror, it is now said its intelligence service, the ISI, always 'tolerated', if not supported and even trained, the Taliban in the recent years.

Matthew Cole wrote an interesting article "Killing ourselves in Afghanistan" which gives a must-read insight in the balancing act Pakistan's military have performed before, during and after the 9/11 crisis. The article features the intriguing story of a defunct Taliban officer.

My prediction: the current ruling frail coalition might find it difficult to fill the power vacuum of the post-Musharraf era. Either extremists will go for the throne or will plunge the country in chaos. If Pakistan tumbles, the whole region might go up in flames again. OR, of course, the country rulers might go for the classical political solution: deviate the public's attention from the real problems, and start a "whag the dog"-war. India? Either way, it makes the events in Pakistan a worrying spot in the spectrum of world politics.

Update (less than a day after writing this post):
Pakistan's ruling coalition split after former premier Nawaz Sharif withdrew over differences on the restoration of judges sacked by ex-president Pervez Musharraf. (Full)
2nd Update (a few hours later):
An estimated 200,000 people from the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan have been displaced since the Pakistani army launched the Bajaur operation early this month in response to growing U.S. pressure to take action against the Taliban in the region, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross.(Full)
3rd Update (16-Sept-2008):
Pakistan's military has ordered its forces to open fire if U.S. troops launch another air or ground raid across the Afghan border, an army spokesman said. Pakistani officials warn that stepped-up cross-border raids will accomplish little while fueling violent religious extremism in nuclear-armed Pakistan.(Full)
4th Update (20-Sept-2008):
Suicide bomber blows up a truck full of explosives outside of the Islamabad Marriott hotel, killing at least 40 people (Full)
5th Update (2-Oct-2008):
UN orders staff families to evacuate Islamabad (Full)
6th Update (03-Oct-2008):
War has come to Pakistan, not just as terrorist bombings, but as full-scale battles, leaving Pakistanis angry and dismayed as the dead, wounded and displaced turn up right on their doorstep. (Full)
7th Update (09-Oct-2008):
Bombings killed 10 people and wounded at least four, including an attack on a heavily guarded Islamabad police complex. (Full)
8th Update (Nov-2009):
We are now one year later. Looking at the frequency of suicide bombings, attacks on civilians, the international community and the aid organisations, it seems my prediction was pretty spot on so far... Sadly...

Picture courtesy Khalid Tanveer/AP

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Recommended: The Reluctant Fundamentalist

Excuse me, sir, but may I be of assistance? Ah, I see I have alarmed you. Do not be frightened by my beard: I am a lover of America.

Thus starts the monologue of "Changez", the principle character in "The Reluctant Fundamentalist" by Mohsin Hamid.
Seated at dusk at a Lahore cafe, Changez tells his story to a stranger, an American. A story of a Pakistani who studied in the US, found work in a prestigious company, met a girl and became singled out after 9/11. Gradually he starts question his path of life and how different he was from the people around him, in a Western country.

The story is told with a light, almost frivolous, sometimes ironical English, jumping between the subjects of love, culture, religion, prejudices and the war on terror. Despite the weight of the topics, the story remains so light it almost starts to resonate with irony or sarcasm without giving away any hint of the faith both Changez and his American acquaintance will face towards the end of the book.

Very well written and highly recommended!

You can find this book and more of my favorites in my library.
More recommended books from The Road.

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